Thanksgiving, a cherished holiday steeped in tradition, is a time for family, football, and an abundance of food. However, for many, it also signifies the stress of shopping and the financial burden of hosting a lavish dinner. The cost of groceries for a Thanksgiving feast for ten has seen a decline for two consecutive years, yet it remains 19% higher than the pre-pandemic era, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. This has sparked concern among nearly half of the hosts, as revealed by a survey by Deloitte.

The pandemic's wake has seen food prices surge due to supply chain disruptions and a surge in demand for home-cooked meals. The avian flu outbreak in 2022 further exacerbated the situation, driving up prices for eggs and poultry. Despite inflation slowing from its four-decade high in 2022, prices are still increasing, albeit at a slower pace, with a 21% increase compared to four years ago, as per Consumer Price Index data.

In this economic climate, the art of stretching one's food budget becomes paramount. Billy Roberts, a food economist at CoBank, suggests that consumers can "stretch their food dollars" by planning a shopping list and focusing on favorite dishes, potentially saving money by omitting a side or downsizing dessert. As we navigate the financial challenges of Thanksgiving, here are five strategies to make the dinner more affordable.

The turkey, a symbol of Thanksgiving, has seen its prices soar in recent years, leading some to seek alternative main courses. However, turkey consumption between October 2023 and December 2023 was the lowest since 1980, according to a CoBank report. In the past year, turkey prices have stabilized, with a 7.2% increase year-over-year in October 2023, followed by a 3.9% decrease this October.

The sticker shock in grocery stores seems to have subsided, with the price for a 16-pound turkey this year at $25.67, down 6.1% from last year. Grocery stores often use turkeys as a loss-leader in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, advertising cheap turkeys to attract customers in the hopes they will spend more on other groceries. Josh Koebert, an author at FinanceBuzz, emphasizes the importance of researching loss-leader promotions as a way to save on Thanksgiving dinner. "A turkey is the most expensive part of the meal," Koebert says. "If you can get that for a very limited price or even in some cases free, that takes a ton off of the bottom line."

Koebert also stresses the importance of doing research before shopping to secure the best bargain. Consumers should take advantage of grocery store apps, newsletters, and websites that might offer e-coupons or holiday deals. Signing up for rewards programs and leveraging points is also advised.

Thanksgiving is synonymous with bountiful feasts, but trimming a less popular side dish can save a few dollars. Roberts suggests focusing on guests' favorite dishes and finding ways to cut back without dampening the spirits of the celebration or considering a potluck approach.

Comparing name brands and store brands can also yield significant savings. A Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report estimates that shopping for Thanksgiving dinner for ten would cost $90 with name brands and $73 with store brands, a potential saving of up to $17 by opting for store-brand products. Robin Wenzel, a senior vice president and head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, recommends mixing and matching store and name brands, as some name brands have reduced prices, while some store brands are increasing due to higher demand.

Retailers across the country are vying for a share of your Thanksgiving meal, offering competitive deals. "Shop around this year," Wenzel advises, noting that many retailers are advertising good deals for the Thanksgiving meal. For instance, Target's Thanksgiving meal for four is priced at $20, a $5 decrease from 2023.

Hy-Vee, a grocery store chain, is offering a Thanksgiving deal that includes a turkey, dessert, and sides to feed up to six people starting at $30, along with a "buy a ham, get a turkey free" promotion. Aldi's Thanksgiving meal for ten is priced at $47, or $4.70 per person, including a Butterball turkey and ingredients for sweet potato casserole and pumpkin pie. Walmart is offering a bundle that feeds eight for less than $7 per person, including dinner groceries, a frozen pecan pie, and pumpkin pie ingredients.

Dessert may be the most expensive part of the meal this year, with name-brand pumpkin pies up 1% and store-brand ones up 3% compared to last year. Butter and sugar prices are also on the rise, with butter up 5.1% and sugar up 2.2% year-over-year in October, according to Consumer Price Index data. Rising cocoa prices mean chocolate desserts may also be more expensive, and elevated egg prices further increase the cost of baking.

The average price for a dozen eggs in October was $3.37, 12% lower than in September but still 62% higher than a year ago. William Masters, an economist at the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University, notes that egg prices are volatile and fluctuate due to various factors, not just avian flu.

Roberts suggests that consumers looking to save could consider reducing dessert options. The key is to set a budget, use a shopping list, and compare prices across different grocery stores online. "Our shopping needs vary widely," Masters says. "Each person has to look at their own bank balance and decide what they can afford."

In conclusion, while Thanksgiving may be a time for indulgence, it is also an opportunity to exercise financial prudence. By planning, comparing, and being flexible with our menu, we can enjoy the holiday without undue stress on our wallets. Shoppers who prepare can please their guests and participate in the festivities without breaking the bank. However, if your uncle insists on debating politics and lecturing you on the merits of his generation—well, there, we can only offer a sympathetic ear.